2008 Shark Tank Football - Playoff Scenarios after Week 12
Yes, the economy stinks. If you don't feel it, well, the rest of us hate you. But good for you. For many of us, fantasy football has provided a weekly escape. Unfortunately, for eight of you, it will be back to reality after Week 13. The Shark Tank blog is back for one final recap if only because he loves to analyze playoff scenarios and possibilities. And because this was the highest scoring week in NFL history. Of course, there are 32 teams now so yeah, you would expect teams to score more with more teams.
Here are the standings with one week to go.
Rk Team W-L Total (Rk) Avg StrkAnd on to the Week 12 recaps.
1 ∞ and Counting 10-2 971.29 (1) 80.94 W5
2 Hana Buttah 8-4 897.26 (6) 74.77 W3
3 This Team Stinks 7-5 941.28 (3) 78.44 W1
4 Brown Town Blues 7-5 938.07 (4) 78.17 L1
5 Under new ownership 6-6 948.51 (2) 79.04 L1
6 dan's team 6-6 791.58 (10) 65.97 W1
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7 ESPN List knows best 6-6 778.55 (12) 64.88 W1
8 The JUNGERNAUT 6-6 719.24 (14) 59.94 W4
9 Back to Average Joes 5-7 927.48 (5) 77.29 L2
10 List not working 5-7 822.14 (8) 68.51 L1
11 Laurie's Team 5-7 816.07 (9) 68.00 W1
12 Ophir Gophirs 5-7 789.36 (11) 65.78 L2
13 Flying pigskins 4-8 863.91 (7) 71.99 L2
14 Blue 4-8 769.05 (13) 64.09 L1
∞ and Counting (10-2) 84.78 - Under new ownership (6-6) 73.13
Michael Turner gets to play in San Diego next week! As Brent salivates at that possibility, he can enjoy a dead rubber in Week 13 as he clinched the regular season Shark Tank title with a solid victory over David's competitive squad.
Turner got the rock 24 times for 117 yards and four touchdown runs. Brent's team may be subject to Turner's inconsistency. Turner either does nothing or carries the team.
It's never too early to look at Brent's chances in Week 15. Unfortunately, Turner has to face the Bucs defense, Gore has to go against the Dolphins' relatively stingy run defense and Pierre Thomas goes against the Bears. It will be interesting to see how those trio of RBs fare against tough opposition. Could we see the #1 seed go down again? My Magic 8-Ball says… "concentrate and ask again." Another shake says… "better not tell you now." One more time! "Cannot predict now." Man, my 8-ball sounds more like a politician than a magician.
For David, he'll need a win against Kalvin in Week 13 to sew up a playoff spot. Aaron Rodgers had a solid game with a lot of yards, two passing touchdowns and a 10-yard TD run. But unfortunately, David is going to need better efforts from stalwarts like Joseph Addai, Chris Johnson, and Santana Moss if he hopes to qualify for postseason action.
Hana Buttah (8-4) 96.55 - Back to Average Joes (5-7) 78.39
Well, at least Aaron spent the last 10 days on the islands. It would've taken his mind off being the owner with the hardest luck in the Shark Tank. Despite having the fifth highest aggregate point total, Aaron is languishing at 5-7 after Warren got a Monday night explosion from quarterback Drew Brees to overcome a Sunday deficit. With the win, we have to put up with Warren's bragging posts for at least two more weeks.
Brees went 20-26 for 323 yards and four touchdowns while Laveranues Coles and Mark Bradley each had touchdown receptions. The Vikings defense had the privilege of facing the hapless Jags offense and forced five turnovers, sacked David Garrard four times, and scored on a fumble return for 24 fantasy points. Despite getting little from Jason Witten and starting tailbacks Ryan Grant and Willie Parker, Warren almost put up 100.
Meanwhile for Aaron, it was the same old story as his opponents have seemed to perform to close to their best against his team. Quarterback Tyler Thigpen continued to impress with 17-31 with 240 yards, three touchdowns but two picks. Rookie Matt Forte had 20 carries for 132 yards and two scores and is looking like a first-round pick in 2009. However, aside from those two, it was another disappointing week for Brandon Marshall and Ronnie Brown. Aaron also started the injured Brandon Jacobs but was probably on a plane so couldn't remove him from his lineup. Not that it would have made a difference.
Warren was too busy putting smack talk on the league bulletin board so the Shark Tank was unable to interview him for this story. But your correspondent caught up with Aaron as he was coming through LAX. Your correspondent had to buy a refundable plane ticket to get through security to meet him at the gate but it was worth it. Journalism requires sacrifices, you know.
After being on vacation and not worrying about silly things like fantasy football, breaking the news of his loss to him was a poor decision, especially at the gate. "That just ruined my vacation," said Aaron. "Well, at least the basketball season has started and I have one less thing to worry about."
I should not have put my airline ticket on the waiting area benches because I noticed Allison picked up my refundable ticket and decided to treat it like string cheese. Thank goodness for e-tickets. However, the airline charged me $500 to reprint another boarding pass. Stupid fees. I should've just flown to Sioux City and it would've been cheaper.
The JUNGERNAUT (6-6) 60.47 - Blue (4-8) 56.86
In the Raiders/Rams matchup of the week, the two lowest scoring teams in the Shark Tank duked it out and Byron's squad came up trumps. Byron won his fourth game in a row to move to .500 and with a potential playoff spot in the balance next week. For Willie, the loss knocks him out of playoff contention and ends his reign as Shark Tank Bowl champion. And a valiant champs he was.
Who would've thought these two Shark Tank Bowl V participants would be here? Oh right, we're not a keeper league. Duh.
60 points is not an impressive weekly fantasy total but it did the job. Kevin Faulk had 105 total yards and a touchdown and Eli Manning had 240 yards passing and three touchdowns. But he survived a negative point total from his defense and an injured Plaxico Burress to hang on for the win.
Willie got two scoring runs from little Leon Washington and a solid effort by Eli's older brother Peyton. But he didn't get anything from Devery Henderson on Monday night and that proved decisive. As bad as Byron's defense was, Willie's Arizona was worse as they got a minus-3 point total. Lovely. Four of Willie's starters had two points or fewer. It's been a long season that will fortunately be over next week.
Meanwhile, Byron's unbridled optimism continues. "We're going to win five in a row and then get back to the Shark Tank Bowl," he said. "I just wish there were more people in our league with the last name of Len. Can't Isaiah, Jamie and Allison sign up next year? That's six wins right there!"
Laurie's Team (5-7) 98.07 - Brown Town Blues (7-5) 82.20
Randy Moss decided to start to try and messed around for eight catches for 125 yards and three touchdowns to lead Laurie to a win over Bing's BTB. The loss was particular painful for Bing as he had a chance to get a leg up on Warren and Elijah for the #2 seed and the bye. But he'll have to hope for good results next week to earn that first-round bye.
Philip Rivers threw for 288 yards and two scores and Anthony Gonzalez had a touchdown catch. The Bucs defense played the Lions. It didn't look good early but it was only a matter of time. They registered four sacks, two picks, a recovered fumble and a touchdown. Even without the injured Reggie Bush and Daniel Graham getting any action, Laurie nearly put up 100 points.
Bing's team put forth a balanced effort lead by DeAngelo Williams who had 101 yards and a score and rookie Peyton Hillis who had 96 total yards and a touchdown. However, starting Jeff Garcia over Chad Pennington cost Bing 17 points and a win. Pennington threw for 341 yards, three touchdowns and ran for another while Garcia had a solid game but not spectacular. Even Shaun Hill was a better alternative. Bing continues to stockpile quarterbacks as he just picked up Trent Edwards. Dude, you know he went to STANFURD, right?
Bing was disappointed that Moss chose to play against his team after taking the first 11 weeks off. "There's something I don't like about that guy. He's such a punk." When asked if he'd draft him next year, Bing said, "Sure, if Brady's healthy. At least I've unloaded all my sucky Browns players and ever since I did that, I've done a lot better!" Yes, if we unload all the brown things in our life, we will all feel better.
dan's team (6-6) 88.31 - List not working (5-7) 66.45
Dan took a big step towards a playoff berth and all but fatally damaged Matt's playoff chances with a resounding win in Week 12. Dan needs to win and get help to get into the playoffs while Matt's Clippers-like run in the Shark Tank continues. I don't think he's ever made the playoffs. Playoffs? Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs!
Jake Delhomme shook off two miserable outings to throw for 295 yards and a touchdown while running for a second. Marshawn Lynch and Tony Gonzalez combined for over 27 fantasy points and the Ravens defense went crazy against the hapless Eagles for five forced turnovers, a safety, two sacks and a 108-yard pick-six. They blocked a kick for good measure. That's 26 points.
Matt got a nice game from the Cowboys defense but little else. It's almost fitting that Greg Camarillo had his highest point total and tore his knee in the same game ending his season. LaDainian Tomlinson has scored once in his last seven games and only got 114 total yards on Sunday night. Kurt Warner had a rare sub-double digit performance despite throwing for 351 yards. A pick and fumble didn't help Matt's cause. Larry Fitzgerald fell victim to Warner's off game.
Matt took offense at the Clippers comparisons. "We're not like the Clippers at all. Our misfortune has been based on bad luck, not bad drafting, bad player development and parsimony," he said. "We're more like the Sacramento Kings - no one wants to play for us because we're out in same backwater state capitol with a stadium that looks like it's in the middle of nowhere."
Unfortunately, Matt's chances of getting the #1 pick again next year don't look good. Willie and Kalvin both have to win their games and Matt may have to put up a goose egg to fall below Willie's point total. Matt holds a 53-point advantage over Willie... hmm, I wonder if Matt may decide to just bench everybody in Week 13 and go for Adrian Peterson next year! Some traditions need to stay alive.
ESPN List knows best (6-6) 64.27 - Ophir Gophirs (5-7) 51.07
I don't think Andy checks his team anymore. And that's fine. Well, actually I guess he does. He put Tony Romo back in and Romo threw for 341 yards and three scores and rookie Tim Hightower had two more rushing touchdowns as Andy kept his hopes alive for a playoff spot with a win over Rob's Gophirs.
Marques Colston didn't do anything on Monday night until he caught a 70-yard touchdown pass. Andy didn't get much help aside from those three but it was enough. Rob has to be seriously disappointed with his team. It looks good on paper but things didn't fall his way in 2008. Brian Westbrook and Willis McGahee saw little action and Matt Ryan failed to throw a TD pass. Rob's only player to break double digits was Anquan Boldin.
The economy has really hurt many around the world but it's debatable whether anyone has been hit harder than the hard luck fantasy football owners. Salaries are escalating and owners including Andy and Rob are having a hard time keeping up expenses in their burgeoning fantasy empires.
"It gets really expensive when you have five football teams, four basketball teams, four baseball teams, a football suicide league and even a golf team," said Rob. "I may have to cut costs somewhere because sponsorships are drying up, I haven't been able to find sponsors for my kids' T-shirts and I haven't been able to sell the luxury boxes to Grant Field. The recession is really hurting."
Meanwhile, Andy is struggling as well. He's in a premier-type basketball league and he's having a hard time keeping up with the influx of rich foreign owners while he has to service his privately funded stadium. "We need to keep foreigners out of fantasy sports. It's driving costs up and all they do is rack up debt and pass it on to the fans." When asked if he would sell to Americans that don't know anything about the sports they invest in, Andy said, "Well, I don't think that we can. Our fans would protest outside of our stadium and burn me in effigy. I don't think Addison would appreciate her friends like Elizabeth Lau carrying voodoo dolls of me because I sold out."
This Team Stinks (7-5) 93.98 - Flying pigskins (4-8) 74.21
Elijah figured that going into this week, he only needed one win in the last two to assure playoff football and he liked his chances given he was playing Kalvin and Byron. Darn it, he got it. Terrell Owens was unleashed for 215 yards and a score while Lance Moore caught two TD passes as This Team Stinks all but clinched a playoff spot with a win over Kalvin's Pigskins.
Thomas Jones had another solid game and rookie Darren McFadden got the hoped-for red zone carries for two touchdowns. Rookie kicker Garrett Hartley added six extra points and a field goal. This helped offset another subpar game from Jay Cutler.
Kalvin was done in by quiet games but especially from rookie Jonathan Stewart. Stewart only had 15 yards as the Panthers allowed DeAngelo Williams to pile up the numbers. Derrick Ward did get a start thanks to the injured Brandon Jacobs and had 99 total yards and a score. Adrian Peterson scored again but did not get as many points as hoped for against a weak Jaguars defense.
Kalvin was his usual diplomatic and gracious self despite failing to make the playoffs. "I'd love to fire myself but then with this economy, it doesn't make financial sense because then I'd have to pay off my own contract and hire someone else. We can't afford that," said Kalvin. "But on the bright side, I'm hoping to raise enough funds so I can buy out my own contract and then we can bring in a new guy." When asked if he'd be willing to forego his bonuses and salaries like bank CEOs have, he said, "I'm willing to do that so long as I can keep my private corporate jet with the Flying Pigskins livery. If that's not enough, I'll just ask the government for several million dollars to bail me out. I mean, they're throwing around billions to every other poorly run company, they can spare a couple million for my football franchise. We're a legacy fantasy football team. They need us."
Playoff Scenarios - rankings are as of Week 12:
So here is my favorite part of this post - playoff possibities!
#1 Brent's ∞ and Counting (10-2) 971.29
Brent has clinched the #1 seed and will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That means he gets a bye and will play the winner game between the #4 and #5 seeds. He may as well rest guys in next week's meaningless clash. But then again, it's fantasy football, not real football. So as much as he wants Turner and Gore to rest in their real-life games in Weeks 13 and 14, that's probably not going to happen.
#2 Warren's Hana Buttah (8-4) 897.26
Warren has clinched a playoff spot. He will clinch the #2 seed if he wins next week. There's a slight chance he'll keep the #2 spot if he loses but he'll probably need both Bing and Elijah to lose their games against the last place team (Willie) and the team with the lowest point total (Byron) respectively - an unlikely proposition. Bing and Elijah both hold 40+ point advantages over Warren so they'd likely win any tiebreaker. Warren will be no worse than 4th.
Warren has to play Brent next week so he'll have to hope for an upset to cling to that coveted #2 seed.
#3 Elijah's This Team Stinks (7-5) 941.28
#4 Bing's Brown Town Blues (7-5) 938.07
Elijah still doesn't care about fantasy football and is somewhat disappointed to have to try for at least another week. Bing and Elijah are in a near dead heat for 3rd right now and next week's results would be pivotal for both of them.
Both of them are in the playoffs as the gaggle of 6-6 teams will be unable to surpass their point totals. The worst seed either will be going into the postseason is 5th.
If Warren stumbles, both Elijah and Bing will be targeting that first-round bye. Winning will be nice but they'll be scoreboard watching looking at point totals with the hope of topping the other.
#5 David's Under New Ownership (6-6) 948.51
#6 Dan's Team (6-6) 791.58
#7 Andy's ESPN List knows best (6-6) 778.55
#8 Byron's JUNGERNAUT (6-6) 719.24
David is in a precarious yet enviable position. He is in by far the best position of the four 6-6 teams that will be competing for the final two spots. If David beats Kalvin, he'll be in.
If he loses, he can still make it if at least two of Dan, Andy and Byron lose. Dan will be favored over Rob, Andy is an underdog against Aaron and Byron is probably the underdog against Elijah. So David's chances of getting in are pretty good, win or lose. Probability of getting in: 82%.
For Dan, winning may not be enough. If he wins, he'll also need two of the other three 6-6 owners to lose. But even if he wins and David also wins, Dan will need to maintain his slight 13 point advantage over Andy to ensure passage into the postseason. Dan's odds: 64%.
Andy has the toughest opponent of the four 6-6 teams but if he manages to do well against Aaron, he'll likely have the points to overtake Dan. Andy's odds: 29%
Byron has won four in a row to make the most improbable playoff run in the Shark Tank. He desperately wants to have a chance to make the Shark Tank Bowl for the second consecutive year. However, check out the margins of victory during his winning streak: 5.07, 0.87, 0.40, 3.61. He could easily be 2-10 and has the lowest point total in the league. He's going against Elijah will be the underdog. Even if Byron wins, he'll need two of David, Dan and Andy to lose. Given the circumstances, Byron has the longest odds of the quartet: 15%.
Yes, I'm pulling numbers out of my you-know-where.
#9 Aaron's Back to Average Joes (5-7) 927.48
#10 Matt's List not working (5-7) 822.14
#11 Laurie's Team (5-7) 816.07
#12 Rob's Ophir Gophirs (5-7) 789.36
Obviously all these teams will need help. Fortunately for them, none of the 6-6 teams are playing one another so it is theoretically possible that all of these teams can mathematically make the playoffs. However, the only one with a real shout is Aaron. I'll explain why below.
Let us focus on Dan, Andy and Byron because even if Dave loses, the only one that could catch him is Aaron. Aaron plays Andy and if Aaron wins, he can sneak in if Dan loses to Rob and if Byron loses to Elijah.
Meanwhile, for Matt, Laurie and Rob, they're chances are pretty much nil. They need a LOT of help and score a LOT of points. They must win their Week 13 game to even have a shot. If they do, they will also require all of Dan, Andy and Byron to lose. However, if Andy loses, that would mean Aaron wins and none of them are going to make up a 100 point deficit to catch Aaron or David for one of the final two spots.
I'll put Aaron's odds at 10%. For Matt, Laurie and Rob, there's basketball. And next year.
#13 Kalvin's Flying Pigskins (4-8) 863.91
#14 Willie's Blue (4-8) 769.05
Kalvin and Willie are wondering how Byron got lucky with those close wins and meanwhile, they're languishing propping up the rest of the league. Willie's got a real shot to go from first to worst. But he's still got two of those shiny Shark Tank Bowl trophies in his house and you can't take that away from him.
